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The economics impacts of long-run droughts: Challenges, gaps, and way forward

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dc.contributor.authorFernández , Francisco J.
dc.contributor.authorVásquez Lavín, Felipe
dc.contributor.authorPonce, Roberto D.
dc.contributor.authorGarreaud , René
dc.contributor.authorHernández, Francisco
dc.contributor.authorLink , Oscar
dc.contributor.authorZambrano, Francisco
dc.contributor.authorHanemann, Michael
dc.date.accessioned2024-05-16T17:50:44Z
dc.date.available2024-05-16T17:50:44Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.description.abstractQuantifying drought's economic impacts has been key for decision-making to build future strategies and improve the development and implementation of proactive plans. However, climate change is changing drought frequency, intensity, and durability. These changes imply modifications of their economic impact, as longer droughts result in greater cumulative economic losses for water users. Though the longer the drought lasts, other factors also play a crucial role in its economic outcomes, such as Infrastructure capacity (IC), the Amount of Water in Storage (AWS) in reservoirs and aquifers, and short- and long-term responses to it. This study proposes and applies an analytical framework for the economic assessment of long-run droughts, assessing and explaining central Chile megadrought economic effects through the factors that begin to influence the economic impact level in this setting. High levels of both IC and the AWS, as well as short- and long-term responses of water users, allow for high resilience to long-run droughts, tolerating extraordinary water disruption in its society with relatively low total economic impacts. Despite this adaptability, long-term droughts bring places to a water-critical threshold where long-term adaptation strategies may be less flexible than short-term strategies, escalating the adverse economic effects. This fact suggests that the economic evaluation of megadrought needs to focus on future tipping points (substantial water scarcity). The tipping point depends on the IC, how water users manage the AWS, and adaptation strategies. Establishing the tipping point should be a priority for future interdisciplinary research.
dc.description.versionVersión publicada
dc.format.extent19 p.
dc.identifier.citationJ Environ Manage. 2023 Oct 15;344:118726.
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118726
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11447/8799
dc.language.isoen
dc.rightsAtribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 3.0 Chile (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 CL)
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/cl/
dc.subjectLong-run droughts
dc.subjectAmount of water in storage
dc.subjectAssessment framework
dc.subjectEconomic impacts
dc.subjectInfrastructure capacity
dc.titleThe economics impacts of long-run droughts: Challenges, gaps, and way forward
dc.typeArticle
dcterms.accessRightsAcceso abierto
dspace.entity.typePublication
relation.isAuthorOfPublication453a6661-8778-4f8f-a5fa-362612fc2b58
relation.isAuthorOfPublicatione288b9c6-783c-4d11-a1ce-0776a61334ec
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery453a6661-8778-4f8f-a5fa-362612fc2b58

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