Person: Troncoso, Rodrigo
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Troncoso
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Rodrigo
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Publication Estimating multinomial logit models with endogenous variables: Control function versus two adapted approaches(2024) Grange, Louis de; González, Felipe; Marechal, Matthieu; Troncoso, RodrigoIt is shown that the control function (CF) method’s estimates of the modal constants in a multinomial logit model (MNL) with endogenous explanatory variables are biased. This has not previously been reported in the literature, and has consequences in demand analysis, transportation policy design and project evaluation. Two adaptations of existing approaches are proposed as alternatives to CF for deriving estimators of parameters in MNL models with endogenous explanatory variables that evidence good consistency properties. The first approach is based on moment conditions while the second one combines parameters obtained in two consecutive estimation stages. Both approaches employ instrumental variables. These two adapted approaches are implemented using simulated data from a transport mode choice problem. The results are compared with those obtained using the classic control-function method, typically used by practitioners for estimating transport demand models with endogenous variables and making quantitative evaluations of transport policies and projects. All three approaches generate similar estimates for the parameters of the explanatory variables, but the two proposed adaptations produce considerably more accurate estimates of the modal constants. This greater accuracy has potentially significant consequences for multinomial logit models’ predictive ability and estimates of marginal effects, elasticities and the social benefits of projects based on con sumer surplus calculations.Publication Impacts of vehicle restrictions on urban traffic speeds and transit ridership: an empirical analysis using high-frequency data(2025) Grange, Louis de; Pezoa, Raúl; Troncoso, RodrigoThe impacts of vehicle restrictions in Santiago, Chile, on the average speeds of vehicle traffic and public buses as well as on transit card validations are quantified using novel high-frequency data, coming from millions of records from a ride-hailing service and the city’s public transport system. The restrictions were in force on weekdays during May through August between 7:30 am and 9 pm in urban districts, and applied on a given day to 20 % of the stock of vehicles registered before September 2011. The quality, frequency and spatial coverage of the data we use allow us to estimate not only classic methods like before-and-after and differences-in-differences, but also triple differences, which allows for a higher number of control variables. All these methods arrived at the conclusion that the restrictions produce small increases in speed vehicle traffic (between 3.3 % and 4.2 %) and bus speeds (between 1.8 % and 2.3 %); no increases in the use of public transport were detected. Three likely reasons for the size of the effects are the low percentage of vehicles subject to the restrictions on any given day (approximately 6.9 %), the tendency for frequent drivers to be from higher-income groups and thus to own newer vehicles, and widespread violation of the restrictions due to weak enforcement with low fines.