Person: Rivera, Diego
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Rivera
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Diego
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Publication Decadal Variability of Dry Days in Central Chile(2025) Latoja, Daniela; Lillo-Saavedra, Mario; Gonzalo-Martin, Consuelo; Godoy-Faúndez, Alex; Somos-Valenzuela, Marcelo; Rivera, DiegoDry days are crucial in precipitation variability and water scarcity, particularly in Mediterranean regions facing increasing aridity. Despite their importance, most research focuses on precipitation amounts and temporal dynamics. This study addresses this gap by analyzing dry days’ temporal and spatial variability in central Chile (32–40 S), a region experiencing prolonged drought. We examined dry day patterns from 1960 to 2021 using high-resolution gridded precipitation data, defining dry days with five precipitation thresholds (0.10, 1, 2.5, 5, and 10 mm/day). Principal component and trend analyses were employed to characterize spatial and temporal variability. Results reveal a spatial pattern of dry days closely following precipitation patterns, with more dry days in northern and coastal areas. The first principal component explains 70–80% of the variance, and clustering methods allowed the definition of five homogeneous regions with distinct monthly dry-day characteristics. Long-term trends show a significant increase in annual dry days south of 38°S, while trends are weaker and non-significant further north. Notably, trend direction is highly sensitive to the analysis period, with some regions showing opposing trends before and after 1982. The 2010–2019 megadrought is detectable in decadal anomalies. We found links between dry day anomalies and large-scale climate patterns, suggesting modulation by changes in subtropical and extratropical atmospheric circulation. This comprehensive characterization of dry day climatology and variability provides crucial insights for water resource management and climate change adaptation in central Chile and similar Mediterranean regions worldwide. Our findings highlight the importance of considering dry day frequency in drought assessment and water planning, contributing to a more nuanced understanding of precipitation patterns in Mediterranean climates.Publication Shifting dry spells in Central Chile: Implications for agriculturalwater planning(2025) Latoja, Daniela; Rivera, Diego; Lillo, Mario; Godoy-Faúndez, AlexChile’s agricultural production occurs in a highly variable Mediterranean climate and faces declining annual precipitation trends as well as growing competition from other uses. Water availability for agriculture depends on winter precipitation; however, a more even distribution of precipitation throughout the year would better support agricultural planning and management. We examine the occurrence, frequency, and trends of dry spells in Central Chile (32˚–40˚ S) as a proxy for changes in the timing of dry-wet seasons, using a gridded daily precipitation dataset spanning the period from 1960 to 2021. Our results indicate a significant increase in dry spells (+1 event/decade), but shorter (−2 days/event), and a significant decrease in precipitation per wet spell (−2 mm/event/decade). Findings suggest that changes in dry spells should also be considered in planning and policy, as some regions may be experiencing water shortages due to shifts in timing and access, rather than simply having less water. Plain Language Summary Chile’s agriculture occurs in a region with variable precipitation and temperature year-to-year. Water for farming mainly comes from winter precipitation, but better year-round distribution is needed for effective planning. We analyzed the occurrence of consecutive dry days during the fall-winter and spring-summer seasons. We found that there has been an increase in dry spells, as well as a decrease in precipitation volume per wet spell. Changes in dry spells should be considered in agricultural planning and policy, as some regions may face water shortages due to timing and access issues, in addition to reduced water availability.