Person: Araos Bralic, Rafael Ignacio
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Araos Bralic
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Rafael Ignacio
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Publication Navigating economic turmoil: Chilean businesses during COVID-19 lockdowns and vaccine rollouts(2024) Pertuze, Julio A.; MontƩgu, JosƩ Pablo; GonzƔlez, Cecilia; Araos Bralic, Rafael Ignacio; Daza, PaulaObjectives: This study evaluates the effects of COVID-19 lockdowns, differentiated by their stringency, on the sales of Chilean businesses across various size categories and industries throughout 2020 and 2021. It also explores the role of the vaccination campaign and the implementation of the Mobility Pass in mitigating the negative economic effects of stringent containment measures. Methods: The study uses administrative data from the Chilean Internal Revenue Service (SII), examining sales across different business sizes and industries, from March 2020 to December 2021. Through an econometric analysis, we estimate the effects of lockdowns on business sales during two distinct periods: initial reliance on dynamic non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) pre-vaccine, and a subsequent stage characterized by high vaccine uptake and reduced NPI stringency. Results: Lockdowns significantly reduced sales across all business sizes and most industries during the first period, with microenterprises and certain service sectors experiencing the highest decline. The national vaccination campaign and the introduction of the Mobility Pass in the second period appears to have mitigated the negative effects of lockdowns, primarily benefiting micro and small firms. Conclusions: The study highlights the trade-offs between health and economic outcomes during the pandemic, stressing the importance to alleviate mobility restrictions post-vaccine rollout to ease the economic strain on businesses. The findings call for targeted support measures for MSMEs and vulnerable industries affected by NPIs.Publication Cost-effectiveness of strategies using preventive interventions to protect infants in Chile from respiratory syncytial virus(2025) Bolanos, Rafael; Araos Bralic, Rafael Ignacio; Gonzalez, Cecilia; Sepulveda, Dino; Falconi, Juan; Averin, Ahuva; Atwood, Mark; Quinn, Erin; Law, Amy; Mendes, DianaBackground: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of lower respiratory tract illness (LRTI; RSV-LRTI) among infants in Chile; young infants and infants born prematurely are at greatest risk. Research design and methods: A cohort model was developed to evaluate cost-effectiveness of strategies preventing RSV-LRTI in infants. Using the model, we calculated the economically justifiable price (EJP) of maternal RSVpreF vaccination (MV) versus no intervention and then evaluated the cost-effectiveness of MV (cost/dose assumed at EJP) with complementary use of monoclonal antibody nirsevimab for unprotected infants (MV+N) versus nirsevimab alone (NA) to prevent RSV-LRTI. Nirsevimab published price was $260.00; costs/prices reported in 2023 US$. Results: NA yielded 20,247 cases (hospital: 3,773, emergency ward: 16,474) and $57.2 million (M) in total costs (medical: $6.3 M, intervention: $48.7 M, indirect: $2.2 M). MV+N yielded 23,906 cases (hospital: 3,137, emergency ward: 20,769) and $28.7 M in costs (medical: $4.8 M, intervention: $21.7 M [RSVpreF assumed $75.77/dose; nirsevimab procured $260.00/dose], indirect: $2.2 M). With costs lower by $28.4 M and increased quality-adjusted life-years, MV+N would be cost-saving versus NA. Conclusions: RSVpreF vaccination among pregnant women along with nirsevimab for unprotected infants in Chile would be the most efficient use of resources, yielding substantial cost savings compared to use of nirsevimab alone. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04424316 NCT03979313.