Person: Araos Bralic, Rafael Ignacio
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Araos Bralic
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Rafael Ignacio
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Publication Effectiveness of an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in children and adolescents: a large-scale observational study(2023) Jara, Alejandro; Undurraga, Eduardo; Flores, Juan; Zubizarreta, José; González, Cecilia; Pizarro, Alejandra; Ortuño, Duniel; Acevedo, Johanna; Leo, Katherinne; Paredes, Fabio; Bralic , Tomás; Vergara, Verónica; Leon, Francisco; Parot, Ignacio; Leighton, Paulina; Suárez, Pamela; Rios, Juan; García, Heriberto; Rafael Araos; Araos Bralic, Rafael IgnacioBackground: Policymakers urgently need evidence to adequately balance the costs and benefits of mass vaccination against COVID-19 across all age groups, including children and adolescents. In this study, we aim to assess the effectiveness of CoronaVac's primary series among children and adolescents in Chile. Methods: We used a large prospective national cohort of about two million children and adolescents 6-16 years to estimate the effectiveness of an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (CoronaVac) in preventing laboratory-confirmed symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID-19), hospitalisation, and admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) associated with COVID-19. We compared the risk of individuals treated with a complete primary immunization schedule (two doses, 28 days apart) with the risk of unvaccinated individuals during the follow-up period. The study was conducted in Chile from June 27, 2021, to January 12, 2022, when the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant was predominant but other variants of concern were co-circulating, including Omicron. We used inverse probability-weighted survival regression models to estimate hazard ratios of complete immunization over the unvaccinated status, accounting for time-varying vaccination exposure and adjusting for relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical confounders. Findings: The estimated adjusted vaccine effectiveness for the inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in children aged 6-16 years was 74.5% (95% CI, 73.8-75.2), 91.0% (95% CI, 87.8-93.4), 93.8% (95% CI, 87.8-93.4) for the prevention of COVID-19, hospitalisation, and ICU admission, respectively. For the subgroup of children 6-11 years, the vaccine effectiveness was 75.8% (95% CI, 74.7-76.8) for the prevention of COVID-19 and 77.9% (95% CI, 61.5-87.3) for the prevention of hospitalisation. Interpretation: Our results suggest that a complete primary immunization schedule with the inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine provides effective protection against severe COVID-19 disease for children 6-16 years. Funding: Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo (ANID) Millennium Science Initiative Program and Fondo de Financiamiento de Centros de Investigación en Áreas Prioritarias (FONDAP)Publication Navigating economic turmoil: Chilean businesses during COVID-19 lockdowns and vaccine rollouts(2024) Pertuze, Julio A.; Montégu, José Pablo; González, Cecilia; Araos Bralic, Rafael Ignacio; Daza, PaulaObjectives: This study evaluates the effects of COVID-19 lockdowns, differentiated by their stringency, on the sales of Chilean businesses across various size categories and industries throughout 2020 and 2021. It also explores the role of the vaccination campaign and the implementation of the Mobility Pass in mitigating the negative economic effects of stringent containment measures. Methods: The study uses administrative data from the Chilean Internal Revenue Service (SII), examining sales across different business sizes and industries, from March 2020 to December 2021. Through an econometric analysis, we estimate the effects of lockdowns on business sales during two distinct periods: initial reliance on dynamic non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) pre-vaccine, and a subsequent stage characterized by high vaccine uptake and reduced NPI stringency. Results: Lockdowns significantly reduced sales across all business sizes and most industries during the first period, with microenterprises and certain service sectors experiencing the highest decline. The national vaccination campaign and the introduction of the Mobility Pass in the second period appears to have mitigated the negative effects of lockdowns, primarily benefiting micro and small firms. Conclusions: The study highlights the trade-offs between health and economic outcomes during the pandemic, stressing the importance to alleviate mobility restrictions post-vaccine rollout to ease the economic strain on businesses. The findings call for targeted support measures for MSMEs and vulnerable industries affected by NPIs.