Browsing by Author "Undurraga, Eduardo A."
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Publication Effectiveness of CoronaVac in children 3–5 years of age during the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron outbreak in Chile(2022) Jara, Alejandro; Undurraga, Eduardo A.; Zubizarreta, José R.; González, Cecilia; Acevedo, Johanna; Pizarro, Alejandra; Vergara, Verónica; Soto-Marchant, Mario; Gilabert, Rosario; Flores, Juan Carlos; Suárez, Pamela; Leighton, Paulina; Eguiguren, Pablo; Ríos, Juan Carlos; Fernández, Jorge; García-Escorza, Heriberto; Araos, RafaelThe outbreak of the B.1.1.529 lineage of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (Omicron) has caused an unprecedented number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, including pediatric hospital admissions. Policymakers urgently need evidence of vaccine effectiveness in children to balance the costs and benefits of vaccination campaigns, but, to date, the evidence is sparse. Leveraging a population-based cohort in Chile of 490,694 children aged 3–5 years, we estimated the effectiveness of administering a two-dose schedule, 28 days apart, of Sinovac’s inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (CoronaVac). We used inverse probability-weighted survival regression models to estimate hazard ratios of symptomatic COVID-19, hospitalization and admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) for children with complete immunization over non-vaccination, accounting for time-varying vaccination exposure and relevant confounders. The study was conducted between 6 December 2021 and 26 February 2022, during the Omicron outbreak in Chile. The estimated vaccine effectiveness was 38.2% (95% confidence interval (CI), 36.5–39.9) against symptomatic COVID-19, 64.6% (95% CI, 49.6–75.2) against hospitalization and 69.0% (95% CI, 18.6–88.2) against ICU admission. The effectiveness against symptomatic COVID-19 was modest; however, protection against severe disease was high. These results support vaccination of children aged 3–5 years to prevent severe illness and associated complications and highlight the importance of maintaining layered protections against SARS-CoV-2 infection.Publication Effectiveness of homologous and heterologous booster doses for an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine: a large-scale prospective cohort study(2022) Jara, Alejandro; Undurraga, Eduardo A.; Zubizarreta, José R.; González, Cecilia; Pizarro, Alejandra; Acevedo, Johanna; Leo, Katherinne; Paredes, Favio; Bralic, Tomás; Vergara, Verónica; Mosso, Marcelo; León, Francisco; Parot, Ignacio; Leighton, Paulina; Suárez, Pamela; Ríos, Juan Carlos; García-Escorza, Heriberto; Araos, RafaelBackground: Vaccine protection against Covid-19 may be waning. Several countries have authorized or begun using a booster vaccine dose. Policymakers urgently need evidence of the effectiveness of additional vaccine doses against Covid-19 and its clinical spectrum for individuals with complete primary immunization schedules. Methods: We used a prospective national cohort of 11·2 million persons 16 years or older to assess the effectiveness of CoronaVac, AZD1222, or BNT162b2 vaccine boosters in individuals who completed their primary immunization schedule with CoronaVac compared to unvaccinated individuals. The study was conducted in Chile from February 2 through November 10, 2021. We used inverse probability-weighted survival regression models to estimate hazard ratios, accounting for time-varying vaccination status and adjusting for relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical confounders. We estimated the change in the hazard associated with complete immunization (≥14 days after the booster). Findings: We found an adjusted vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic Covid-19 of 78·8% (95% confidence interval, CI, 76·8–80·6) for a three-dose schedule with CoronaVac, 96·5% (95% CI, 96·2–96·7) for BNT162b2 booster, and 93·2% (95% CI, 92·9–93·6) for the AZD1222 booster. The adjusted vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization, ICU admission, and Covid-19 related deaths was 86·3%, 92·2%, and 86·7% for a three-dose schedule with CoronaVac, 96·1%, 96·2%, and 96·8% for the BNT162b2 booster, and 97·7%, 98·9%, and 98·1% for the AZD1222 booster. Interpretation: Our results suggest that a homologous or heterologous booster shot for individuals with a complete primary vaccination schedule with CoronaVac provides a high level of protection against Covid-19, including severe disease and death. However, heterologous boosters showed higher vaccine effectiveness for all outcomes, providing additional support for using a mix and match approach. Funding Information: Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo (ANID) Millennium Science Initiative Program and Fondo de Financiamiento de Centros de Investigación en Áreas Prioritarias (FONDAP). Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no conflicts of interest. Ethics Approval Statement: The research protocol was approved by the Comité Ético Científico Clínica Alemana Universidad del Desarrollo. The study was considered exempt from informed consent, no human health risks were identified. Research analysts belong to the Chilean Ministry of Health; our use of data follows Chilean law 19·628 on personal data protection.Item Screening of COVID-19 cases through a Bayesian network symptoms model and psychophysical olfactory test(2021) Eyheramendy, Susana; Saa, Pedro A.; Undurraga, Eduardo A.; Valencia, Carlos; López, Carolina; Méndez Alcamán, Luis; Pizarro-Berdichevsky, Javier; Finkelstein-Kulka, Andrés; Solari, Sandra; Salas, Nicolás; Bahamondes, Pedro; Ugarte, Martín; Barceló, Pablo; Arenas, Marcelo; Agosin, EduardoThe sudden loss of smell is among the earliest and most prevalent symptoms of COVID-19 when measured with a clinical psychophysical test. Research has shown the potential impact of frequent screening for olfactory dysfunction, but existing tests are expensive and time consuming. We developed a low-cost ($0.50/test) rapid psychophysical olfactory test (KOR) for frequent testing and a model-based COVID-19 screening framework using a Bayes Network symptoms model. We trained and validated the model on two samples: suspected COVID-19 cases in five healthcare centers (n = 926; 33% prevalence, 309 RT-PCR confirmed) and healthy miners (n = 1,365; 1.1% prevalence, 15 RT-PCR confirmed). The model predicted COVID-19 status with 76% and 96% accuracy in the healthcare and miners samples, respectively (healthcare: AUC = 0.79 [0.75–0.82], sensitivity: 59%, specificity: 87%; miners: AUC = 0.71 [0.63–0.79], sensitivity: 40%, specificity: 97%, at 0.50 infection probability threshold). Our results highlight the potential for low-cost, frequent, accessible, routine COVID-19 testing to support society's reopening.Item Socioeconomic factors associated with antimicrobial resistance of Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli in Chilean hospitals (2008–2017)(2020) Allel, Kasim; García, Patricia; Labarca, Jaime; Munita, José; Rendic, Magdalena; Grupo Colaborativo de Resistencia Bacteriana; Undurraga, Eduardo A.Objective. To identify socioeconomic factors associated with antimicrobial resistance of Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli in Chilean hospitals (2008–2017). Methods. We reviewed the scientific literature on socioeconomic factors associated with the emergence and dissemination of antimicrobial resistance. Using multivariate regression, we tested findings from the literature drawing from a longitudinal dataset on antimicrobial resistance from 41 major private and public hospitals and a nationally representative household survey in Chile (2008–2017). We estimated resistance rates for three priority antibiotic–bacterium pairs, as defined by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; i.e., imipenem and meropenem resistant P. aeruginosa, cloxacillin resistant S. aureus, and cefotaxime and ciprofloxacin resistant E. coli. Results. Evidence from the literature review suggests poverty and material deprivation are important risk factors for the emergence and transmission of antimicrobial resistance. Most studies found that worse socioeconomic indicators were associated with higher rates of antimicrobial resistance. Our analysis showed an overall antimicrobial resistance rate of 32.5%, with the highest rates for S. aureus (40.6%) and the lowest for E. coli (25.7%). We found a small but consistent negative association between socioeconomic factors (income, education, and occupation) and overall antimicrobial resistance in univariate (p < 0.01) and multivariate analyses (p < 0.01), driven by resistant P. aeruginosa and S. aureus. Conclusion. Socioeconomic factors beyond health care and hospital settings may affect the emergence and dissemination of antimicrobial resistance. Preventing and controlling antimicrobial resistance requires efforts above and beyond reducing antibiotic consumptionPublication Transmission of gram‑negative antibiotic‑resistant bacteria following difering exposure to antibiotic‑resistance reservoirs in a rural community: a modelling study for bloodstream infections(2022) Allel, Kasim; Goscé, Lara; Araos, Rafael; Toro, Daniel; Ferreccio, Catterina; Munita, José; Undurraga, Eduardo A.; Panovska-Grifths, JasminaExposure to community reservoirs of gram-negative antibiotic-resistant bacteria (GN-ARB) genes poses substantial health risks to individuals, complicating potential infections. Transmission networks and population dynamics remain unclear, particularly in resource-poor communities. We use a dynamic compartment model to assess GN-ARB transmission quantitatively, including the susceptible, colonised, infected, and removed populations at the community-hospital interface. We used two side streams to distinguish between individuals at high- and low-risk exposure to community ARB reservoirs. The model was calibrated using data from a cross-sectional cohort study (N= 357) in Chile and supplemented by existing literature. Most individuals acquired ARB from the community reservoirs (98%) rather than the hospital. High exposure to GN-ARB reservoirs was associated with 17% and 16% greater prevalence for GN-ARB carriage in the hospital and community settings, respectively. The higher exposure has led to 16% more infections and attributed mortality. Our results highlight the need for early-stage identifcation and testing capability of bloodstream infections caused by GN-ARB through a faster response at the community level, where most GN-ARB are likely to be acquired. Increasing treatment rates for individuals colonised or infected by GN-ARB and controlling the exposure to antibiotic consumption and GN-ARB reservoirs, is crucial to curve GN-ABR transmission .