Transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Chile, March-October, 2020

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dc.contributor.authorTariq, Amna
dc.contributor.authorUndurraga, Eduardo
dc.contributor.authorCastillo, Carla
dc.contributor.authorVogt, Katia
dc.contributor.authorLuo, Ruiyan
dc.contributor.authorRothenberg, Richard
dc.contributor.authorChowell, Gerardo
dc.date.accessioned2022-02-28T20:30:06Z
dc.date.available2022-02-28T20:30:06Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractSince the detection of the first case of COVID-19 in Chile on March 3rd, 2020, a total of 513,188 cases, including ~14,302 deaths have been reported in Chile as of November 2nd, 2020. Here, we estimate the reproduction number throughout the epidemic in Chile and study the effectiveness of control interventions especially the effectiveness of lockdowns by conducting short-term forecasts based on the early transmission dynamics of COVID-19. Chile’s incidence curve displays early sub-exponential growth dynamics with the deceleration of growth parameter, p, estimated at 0.8 (95% CI: 0.7, 0.8) and the reproduction number, R, estimated at 1.8 (95% CI: 1.6, 1.9). Our findings indicate that the control measures at the start of the epidemic significantly slowed down the spread of the virus. However, the relaxation of restrictions and spread of the virus in low-income neighborhoods in May led to a new surge of infections, followed by the reimposition of lockdowns in Greater Santiago and other municipalities. These measures have decelerated the virus spread with R estimated at ~0.96 (95% CI: 0.95, 0.98) as of November 2nd, 2020. The early sub-exponential growth trend (p ~0.8) of the COVID-19 epidemic transformed into a linear growth trend (p ~0.5) as of July 7th, 2020, after the reimposition of lockdowns. While the broad scale social distancing interventions have slowed the virus spread, the number of new COVID-19 cases continue to accrue, underscoring the need for persistent social distancing and active case detection and isolation efforts to maintain the epidemic under control.es
dc.description.versionVersión publicadaes
dc.identifier.citationCitation: Tariq A, Undurraga EA, Laborde CC, Vogt-Geisse K, Luo R, Rothenberg R, et al. (2021) Transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Chile, March-October, 2020. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 15(1): e0009070. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009070https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009070es
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009070es
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11447/5623
dc.language.isoenes
dc.subjectBasic Reproduction Numberes
dc.subjectCOVID-19 / diagnosises
dc.subjectCOVID-19 / epidemiologyes
dc.subjectCOVID-19 / prevention & controles
dc.subjectCOVID-19 / transmissiones
dc.subjectChile / epidemiologyes
dc.subjectEpidemics / prevention & controles
dc.subjectHumanses
dc.subjectIncidencees
dc.subjectModels, Biologicales
dc.subjectPhysical Distancinges
dc.titleTransmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Chile, March-October, 2020es
dc.typeArticlees
dcterms.sourcePLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASESes

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